Eligibility Analysis - Week 7: Eastern Michigan
Starting this week I thought I'd pick a random team that has not yet reached eligibility, and do a break down of the team's current situation and outlook on becoming bowl eligible. To pick randomly I sorted all 128 FBS teams alphabetically, then generated a random number between 1-128. The resulting team, if not currently eligible, is the team I'll analyze that week. First up, Eastern Michigan University!
General Information
Eastern Michigan University plays its home games in Rynearson Stadium located in Ypsilanti, Michigan. They began playing football in 1891 and have racked up an overall record of 430–529–47 (.451). A member of the Mid-American Conference since 1971, they have accumulated a single conference championship.
Bowl History
The Eagles sport a perfect 1.000 in bowl wins. This may be attributed to only appearing in one bowl game, but don't tell them that. EMU, then known as the Hurons, appeared in the 1987 California Bowl where they narrowly defeated the San Jose State Spartans 30-27 at Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, California on the 12th of December. This bowl win also followed EMU's only MAC championship to date..
2016 Bowl Outlook
The Eagles have started the 2016 season off on the right foot. After week 6 they are 4-2. Just a mere 2 wins away from being eligible for one of those coveted post season bowl slots. Here's a look at there schedule:
What the Experts Say
ESPN FPI has EMU at finishing at about 5.8-6.2 on the season. However, they only give them a favorable percentage to win 1 of their remaining 6 games. Resulting in a 5-7 record and praying that there aren't enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowls.
Atomic Football projects a 6-6 finish for the Eagles.
My Take
Looks like I'm much more generous to the Eagles. I think it looks like Eastern Michigan has a relatively good chance of becoming bowl eligible. They only need 2 more wins. The odds of winning 2 out of 6 games are in their favor.
Of the remaining 6, this is how I would classify them:
Confident Wins: Vs. Miami (OH) (0-6), Vs. Northern Illinois (1-5)
Confident Losses: @ Western Michigan (6-0)
Toss Ups: @ Ohio (4-2), @ Ball State (3-3), Vs. Central Michigan (4-2)
I think it's a good possibility that EMU beats at least one of either Ohio, Ball State or Central Michigan. Likely going 3-3 and ending up with a 7-5 final record.
I'm a novice at football predictions. I think Atomic Football's prediction is probably most realistic of the 3 options in this post. Regardless, the chances are very good for putting them eligible for post-season play for the first time this century.
Eastern Michigan will be bowl eligible. Take that to the bank!
